Goodbye 2017 and Hello 2018! This Year's Property Predictions

This time last year we launched our property blog with one of our first articles being Property Predictions for 2017 it makes sense to see how we faired and to offer a view on the next 12 months.

Our first prediction for 2017 was that there would be decrease in the number of completions (sales) on the previous year of around 35%.  Based on data from Land Registry for the Vale of the White Horse, with completion data only available until the end of November 2017, we compared the previous year up until the end of November 2016 and saw a 30.14% drop in completions.  We will publish a full property report for 2017, however, so far, not a bad first prediction.

Although the national figures have yet to be published, 2017 is likely to be the first time since 2012 that transaction levels were below a million and could be closer to 40% down on 2016’s figure of 1,229,930. (Based on January 2017 to November 2017’s 764,305 completions).

Secondly, we predicted that there would be less property coming to market, although to be fair, we did not assign a value.  We tracked the available stock of property for sale in the area for 2017 and on average, there were 15.56% less properties for sale in the Vale of the White Horse.

Our third and final prediction was that there would only be a minimal rise in property prices within our region and, as our various Property Reports throughout the year, showed, there was a slight increase.  Again, using the Land Registration data up until November 2017 and then doing a year on year comparison, we saw a rise in average prices of 6.84% from £391,116 to £417,903.

In summary, Waymark’s predictions were very close to what actually happened.  Proof that when it comes to understanding the local market, a traditional high street agent will always have a greater insight into what property is actually doing.

With that in mind, what does Waymark think 2018 will be like for our region?

Number of Properties coming to the market.

We will see a slight increase of properties coming to the market as compared to 2017 (excluding New Homes which will continue to increase within our area)

Demand

We do not expect this to materially change from 2017.

Average Sales Price

Overall we expect to see a slight rise in average prices.

The increase in availability will give buyers a little more choice but we don’t think this will have a significant impact on price levels. The entry level to the market will see price rises fuelled by Help to Buy and the removal of Stamp Duty for first time buyers. The mid-range, family homes below £500,000 will remain competitive but see active sales if priced to reflect condition and position.

Properties above £500,000 will see the lowest level of demand but equally, these properties tend to have the lowest availability. So long as prices hold up in the Home Counties then we will continue to see buyers moving west to get better value for money. These often have higher budgets but are cautious on how they spend them.

Moving Forward in 2018

Whatever the property market throws at us, Waymark plans to continue to build on its previous success.  If you haven’t done so already, please drop into our new Faringdon office for a chat about all things property.  Be it residential or commercial, sales or lettings, we are confident that we have the right solution for you!